Understanding migration aversion using elicited counterfactual choice probabilities

This paper investigates how migration and location choice decisions depend on a large set of characteristics, with particular focus measuring the importance nature non-monetary costs moving. We employ stated-preference approach to elicit respondents’ probabilities for hypothetical scenarios, using two waves from NY Fed’s Survey Consumer Expectations. Our stated probabilistic allows us recover distribution individual-level preferences mobility attributes without concerns about omitted variables selection biases that hamper analyses based observed choices alone. estimate substantial heterogeneity in willingness-to-pay (WTP) characteristics moving costs, both across within demographic groups. find be strongly associated attachment current neighborhood dwelling social networks. results indicate evidence sorting into locations as well strong negative association between their expectations actual decisions.